Guaraci

Get to Know

Guaraci is a forecasting system developed by High PIDS research group at School of Technology, University of Campinas. It aims at forecasting the strongest Sun's phenomena, namely solar flares. Flares are sudden releases of radiation (X-rays) and particles that can affect the Earth's atmosphere in a few hours or days. Disturbances involve damages in several fields, including aviation and aerospace, satellites, oil and gas industries, electrical systems, and astronauts safety, leading to economic and commercial losses.

Solar flares are then sudden X-ray releases in the 1-8 Ångström wavelength represented in watts per square meter (W/m²). Depending on their intensities, those phenomena range over a class scale comprehending A (<10e^-7), B (<10e^-6), C (<10e^-5), M (<10e^-4), and X (>10e^-4) events. Each flare class has a X-ray peak flux ten times higher than its predecessor -- M- and X-class events are the strongest ones. In addition, each class also linearly lies around [1,9], that is, a factor representing the flare intensity. Solar flares are thus represented by the product of their intensity factors with the X-ray peak flux values of their classes.

As such, we designed Guaraci to help to mitigate the effects of solar flares, that is, by employing efforts in the forecasting of C+M+X and M+X events in the next 24, 48, and 72 h.

Data

To provide forecasts, Guaraci regularly assembles data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) of the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the US. The table below comprehends the last 5 days of records available and analyzed.

	Year	Month	Day	Radio flux	Sunspot number	Sunspot area	X-ray background flux	Z component WMFR	p component WMFR	c component WMFR	Mag type WMFR
0	2022	12	12	0.857041	0.962528	1.511825	-0.589311	1.585037	1.055883	1.168979	0.0
1	2022	12	13	0.904615	1.21836	1.254005	-0.589311	1.497319	1.033359	1.168979	0.0
2	2022	12	14	1.190057	1.444093	1.219629	-0.589311	1.69792	1.294481	1.419364	0.0
3	2022	12	15	1.213844	0.93243	1.082124	-0.589311	1.68494	1.828655	2.156874	0.0
4	2022	12	16	-2.758563	-1.174417	-0.911688	-0.589311	0.802522	1.020491	1.136096	0.0

Two-Week C+M+X Flare Forecasts

Two-Week M+X Flare Forecasts

Forecasts History

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Year	Month	Day	Time M+X Forecast (UT-3)	Time C+M+X Forecast (UT-3)	M+X Forecast	M+X True	C+M+X Forecast	C+M+X True
2022	12	17	01:00	01:00	No	Not available	No	Not available
2022	12	16	01:00	01:00	No	Yes	No	Yes
2022	12	15	01:00	01:00	No	Yes	No	Yes
2022	12	14	01:00	01:00	No	Yes	No	Yes
2022	12	13	01:00	01:00	No	No	No	Yes
2022	12	12	01:00	01:00	No	No	No	Yes
2022	12	11	01:00	01:00	No	No	No	Yes

Daily C+M+X Flare Forecast

Guaraci last computed the C+M+X flare probabilities at: 2022-12-17 01:00 UT-3.

next 24 h
0.85 Non-flare events probability for the next 24 h. 0.15 C+M+X flare events probability for the next 24 h.

No Will C+M+X flares happen in the next 24 h ahead 2022-12-16?
next 48 h
0.83 Non-flare events probability for the next 48 h. 0.17 C+M+X flare events probability for the next 48 h.

No Will C+M+X flares happen in the next 48 h ahead 2022-12-16?
next 72 h
0.90 Non-flare events probability for the next 72 h. 0.10 C+M+X flare events probability for the next 72 h.

No Will C+M+X flares happen in the next 72 h ahead 2022-12-16?

Daily M+X Flare Forecast

Guaraci last computed the M+X flare probabilities at: 2022-12-17 01:00 UT-3.

next 24 h
0.89 Non-flare events probability for the next 24 h. 0.11 M+X flare events probability for the next 24 h.

No Will M+X flares happen in the next 24 h ahead 2022-12-16?
next 48 h
0.99 Non-flare events probability for the next 48 h. 0.01 M+X flare events probability for the next 48 h.

No Will M+X flares happen in the next 48 h ahead 2022-12-16?
next 72 h
0.96 Non-flare events probability for the next 72 h. 0.04 M+X flare events probability for the next 72 h.

No Will M+X flares happen in the next 72 h ahead 2022-12-16?